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Greek June Elections: “Secret Polls” Show Head-to-Head Race; the Role of Undecided Voters

Finally, silence! The elections campaign officially concluded Friday midnight. No more shouting and screaming politicians debating on our TV screens. No more stress and fear mongering artificial dilemmas. Finally, silence! Greek voters may rise from their couches and seek some activities or contemplate on the future of the country.

Political parties may try a last attempt to convince some undecided voters here and there. It looks as if the crucial judgement will be in the hands of these undecided voters.

Publication of public opinion polls have been banned for the last two weeks, however parties have massively received the results of daily rolling polls. Secret polls, we call them here.

Even though they are not published, Greek media report of an unprecedented head-to-head race between pro-bailout conservative Nea Dimocratia and anti-bailout left-wing SYRIZA.

The party that emerges first gets the 50-seats Bonus, even with a difference of one single vote.

Media speak ff rates around 30% for the first party and a difference of maximum +/-2.5% to the second party, in some rolling polls even less.

However it seems no party can get the absolute majority of 44%.

The third party PASOK follows with a huge difference of some 20%, in some polls getting even a percentage of one-digit.

The other four parties get rates between 7% and 3.5%, while there is a slight possibility that an eighth party, pro-bailout coalition Drasi/DimiourgiaXana may pass the 3% threshold and enter the Parliament.

Also interesting will be to see the rates that extreme-right Chrysi Avgi and communist KKE would receive.

Undecided Voters

According to the rolling polls of the last 24 hours, undecided voters are between 12% and 15%, that is 700,000 or less people. They are expected to cast their votes for ND, SYRIZA or the smaller parties. Most likely they will be the ones who will decide who will be the winner on Sunday night.

Next Day Scenarios

Unless there is a big AHA-surprise, with one party exceeding 40% of the votes, a coalition government is inevitable.

Here are three options: a) clear pro-bailout coalition with ND/PASOK/Drasi,  b) clear anti-bailout SYRIZA/DemLeft/IndependentGreeks c) a government composed by pro- and anti-bailout forces like ND/DemLeft/PASOK and/or SYRIZA.

Should the first two parties end with 1-2% difference it will be difficult to exclude one of them from a coalition government.

 Sunday Schedule

Ballot boxes will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Greeks will have to cast a vote without marking with a cross the candidates of their preference. This time, ballot papers are with lists of candidates.

Exit polls will be released one or two minutes after closing of the ballot boxes at 7 p.m.

First definite results are expected at 09:30 p.m.

KTG will start a live-blogging at approximately 6:30 pm. Should for some reason the server comes down, you can alternatively follow us in our keeptalkinggreece.wordpress.com page.

PS Citing pollsters, so Greek media claim that ND slightly heads the public opinion polls.  However, Alexis Tsipras said on Friday, “we are sure that we will win.” You think, he knows something, we are not allowed to know?

 

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4 comments

  1. I’m often talking with politicians, some closes to Syriza, and usually in athens they are very enthusiastic.
    But remember that the 1st round gave Syriza first in all the big cities, and all attika too. It was not enough to arrive first though.
    At the opposite, ND people seems to be a little bit worried, even if nothing is done yet !

    -fx

  2. I vote with bullet?

    They only need a 2nd 6th of May result and then an unelected government will use the summer break to bring new terrible laws. That’s the reason the elections weren’t held on 19th of Feb.
    The only hope will be that less than 50% vote.

  3. I think that Alexis Tsipras have more followers outside Greece.

  4. Polls show that ND will be first by 4-5%. Pro-bailout coalition more than likely too.