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STRATFOR: Greece…. is truly alone!

Loss of geopolitical role in the Balkan region, significant political instability, social violence, economic bankruptcy and exit the euro zone are some of the pessimistic forecasts for Greece as stated in “The Geopolitics of Greece: A Sea at its Heart” STRATFOR-Global Intelligence report on Greece. In the 10-page analysis released on June 28, 2010 the known American Institute of geopolitical studies notes that  the role of Greece as a strategic ally in the Balkans has been deteriorated since 1993 (war in the Balkans), a loss that was visible by everyone except Greece. In terms of alliance Greece is in even worse position than before the Revolution of 1821 write the authors of the report concluding that “for the first time since the 1820s is, it truly alone”.   

(The Excerpts of the Report are re-published with the permission of STRATFOR – Global Intelligence).  

 Stating that the Aegean Sea builds the geographical, strategical. military  and economical  core of  Greece, the report adds to ‘the loss of geopolitical role’ that:    

“This was evident to everyone but the Greeks. Countries rarely accept their geopolitical irrelevance lightly. Athens absolutely refused to. Instead it did everything it could to retain its membership in the first-world club, borrowing enormous sums of money to spend on the most sophisticated military equipment available and producing erroneous financial records to get into the euro zone. This is often lost amid the ongoing debt crisis, which is commonly described — mainly by the Western European press — as a result of Greek laziness, profligate spending habits and irresponsibility. But faced with a geography that engenders a capital- poor environment and an existential threat from Turkey that challenges its Aegean core, Greece had no alternative but to indebt itself after its Western patrons lost interest, and now even that option is in doubt. (Trying to keep up with its fellow EU states in terms of quality of life obviously played a role in Greece’s financial overextension, but this can also be placed in the context of keeping up with a modernizing Turkey next door.)” ***   


Putting an emphasis on the Aegean, the Greek-Turkish relations and the significant geopolitical role of Turkey, the report stresses the necessity for Greece to find an “outside patron”!  


“Succeeding in maintaining control of the Aegean, Greece’s most important imperative, in the face of regional opposition is simply impossible without an outside patron. Going forward, the question for Greece is whether it will be able to accept its much-reduced geopolitical role. This, too, is out of its hands, depending as it does on the strategies that Turkey adopts. Turkey is a rising geopolitical power intent on spreading its influence in the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus. The question is now whether Turkey will focus its intentions on the Aegean, or instead will be willing to make a deal with Greece in order to concentrate on other interests.”*** 


My remarks: The STRATFOR report predicts a political, economical and social ‘black future’ for Greece unless it finds a patron, who will help it out.  It promotes a rising geopolitical significance for Turkey in one sentence, while at the same time it stamps Greece as a regional indebted country, as a ‘negligible quantity’ so to say.   


After 11/9 , the war in Afghanistan, the ongoing instability in Iraq and the cheeks of Iran  the American Administration set its  priority to Turkey. Turkey, with its Muslim population but with a Kemalist ideology to hold back the establishment of an Islamic state, had all the credentials to turn into a state model in  Middle East:  A democracy ruled by  moderate Islamists.   

The US-preference to Turkey we saw very clear 2009 when freshly elected President Obama visited Ankara, overthrowing the balance the USA used to keep towards NATO-allies Greece & Turkey. Athens was never included in visiting plans of the American President.   

Now what? Greece is in dramatic economical situation, Greece can not spend anymore in expensive military equipment – Greeks will rise up if this would happen.  So the model of  creating ‘tensions in the Aegean’ seems to have served out.  Beginning of the year we experienced a revival of  Greek-Turkey diplomatic and economical rapprochement. But most important we heard in June  Athens announcing plans to start research in  the Aegean for minerals and fossils (read: oil). A month before the deputy Prime Minister of Greece, Theodoros Pangalos, had vehemently denied there was oil in the Aegean.    

So is it a coincidence that the STRATFOR -Global Intelligence, based in oil rich Texas, releases its negative Greece-report  at the end of all these developments? Is it a coincidence that the report urges Greece to find a patron (the USA? the TEXAS lobby maybe?)? Is it a coincidence that the report blackmails Greece in a way by writing that developments in the Aegean are in the hand of Turkey, and not of Greece, which formally owes the Aegean? This STRATFOR report provokes discussions….   



 *** “This report was originally published by STRATFOR, a global intelligence company, and can be read in full here.”   

 As I got permission by STRATFOR to re-publish only two paragraphs, please, read full report in:   

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  1. Stratfor is a bunch of assholes based in Austin Tx who make money by selling nonsense to whomever is willing to buy. Turkey pays for the crap and they buy all of it and quote it too in their press.

    You have to understand something very basic. Greece has no use for Strafor and Stratfor has no use for Greece.

    Strafor is basically anti-Russian and pro-Bush. I wouldn’t even call them pro-American, because they are a bunch of Republican neocon assholes. That’s all. Here is their latest to give you a flavor (notice that whatever is not in the interest of their clients is doomed to fail by some magical coincidence of circumstance)

  2. Dinos, first of all we should ask: what is the purpose of think tanks in general? Whether there are neoncon,liberal, pro/anti eco they all have a purpose to is up to the report’s readers to make a right evaluation of what they read.

    The Stratfor report about Greece was so obvious provocative, coercive and intrigued, that everybody could easily understand what was its real purpose and target. yet, I would still see it under the prisma of natural resourcew in the Aegean and Eastern Meditarranean…