Ten days before the elections in Greece and at least four political parties struggle for the third position in voters’ preference. A position that could grant them the title of “King-maker” should SYRIZA be unable to form a majority government. With left-wing SYRIZA securing the lead in all public opinion polls and conservative Nea Dimokratia to follow, all other political parties that will succeed the threshold of 3% could theoretically arise in the third position after the elections and become King-Makers should SYRIZA be unable to form a majority government. All parties? No, not all parties practically. But it is in the ambitions of their leaders to become King-Makers in a coalition government with SYRIZA.
Aspiring King-Makers
To Potami (the River) of ex television journalist Stavros Theodorakis. The party established before the Euopean Parliament elections in May 2014 has a rather diffuse political program and is being accused by its opponents “to serve the oligarchs and neo-liberalism”. However, the spokeswoman of ToPotami has recently said, that the party could cooperate with both SYRIZA and Nea Dimokratia.
In polls To Potami gets between 4.5% and 6.5%
PASOK according to its leader Evangelos Venizelos target is to climb to the third position and he has repeatedly said that there can be no Greek government without PASOK. However, the party that ruled Greece over more than three decades saw its rates plunge after the Socialists brought the bailout program with strictest austerity ever in a country. Party voters will certainly be divided after ex PM and ex PASOK chairman George Papandreou formed his own movement beginning of January.
In polls PASOK gets between 3% and 6.5%
Movement of Democratic Socialists of George Papandreou is more than optimistic that it will climb to the third position as well and proclaims cooperation with progressive forces. The party targets PASOK voters devoted to Papandreou family. (in polls 1.5%-2.8%)
Independent Greeks: leader Panos Kammenos is 100% certain that a SYRIZA-led coalition is unthinkable without IndGreeks. The party is nationalist but anti-bailout program. However, before forming a coalition government with SYRIZA, Kammenos has first to beat an enemy: the 3% threshold. (n polls 2.2%-3%)
Of course, two more parties could climb in the third position: neonazi Golden Dawn and Communist KKE.
KKE has been vehemently rejecting any cooperation with anyone, SYRIZA included. (in polls 4.1%-6%)
Golden Dawn closely follows To Potami, but who could lift politicians in custody awaiting trial on charges of forming a criminal organization into government partner? (in polls 4.2%-5.5%).
The rate of undecided is between 13% and 18%, while an approxiamtely 5% say that they will vote for “other party”.
At the end of the blog post we could summarize:
“four to six parties struggle to become King-makers, that is the following two could have chances: To Potami and PASOK!
PS for the rates I used indicatively public opinion polls of the last days, sources: here, here and here.
Million thanks for this article! I’ve been thinking much of the same issue, and I have made similiar concludes.
However, mr. Stavros Theodorakis of To Potami has said that they will not “play with the fire” demanding Greek public debt haircuts. Recent calculations show that without such a haircut Greek public debt can be brought down from current 177 pc. of GDP to mere 160 pc. of GDP.
These methods include bilateral loan interest cuts, exending maturity of loans. Also the maturity of loans can be extended for having 160 pc. debt-to-GDP.
And that misses by a mile the objectives that Syriza has got.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-09/greek-kingmaker-in-waiting-says-he-won-t-gamble-euro-exit.html
The other “extending of loans” concerned EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility). 🙂