Just a couple of hours before the crucial – another crucial – Eurogroup meeting on Greece and – as usual – scaremongering- and pressure scenarios mingle with reality. for example: While the Euro Working Group that prepares the Eurogroup meetings reportedly decided to propose to Eurogroup the disbursement of €10.3 billion, some German media claims that Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will oppose it.
According to German conservative Die Welt, “Schaeuble will attempt to delay the release of the bailout tranche release at today’s Eurogroup as he wants to clarify the participation of the IMF in Greek program first.”
But the International Monetary Fund is determined to achieve a Greek debt relief and also wants it “‘upfront and unconditional”. It warned the EU that either its conditions are accepted or it will refuse to part-fund the latest bailout.
On Monday, the IMF issued a Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis on Greece with “updated Estimates and Further Considerations” and the report was decorated with the traditional nicely drawn charts. Ok, in the past there nice charts were based on wrong multipliers and false projections, but we don’t want to stress this here. We are not as mean as people think we are..
Chart by IMF for a sustainable debt – via @KKarkagiannis
But the IMF is in financial troubles – as usually- and charges $18 for access to report, which is a spot price as it usually charges more. Reports from Monday’s EWG claim that the IMF insists on further “cuts in wages and pensions” so that there are chance for the Greek program to be successful.
The Eurogroup will commence at 3 p.m., the eurozone ministers started to arrive and make statements at the door steps and we Greece wants is
- conclude the Program Review
- release the bailout tranche
- make sustainable progress in talks about the debt relief.
With this grave gap between Schaeuble and the IMF? I don’t think so…
