The fronts remain unmovable: the International Monetary Fund and the EU lenders are stuck in their position regarding Greece debt sustainability. Big boys and girls playing with numbers, false multipliers and wrong forecasts on the back of millions of Greeks. Big boys and girls playing with the fates of millions who do not know how to make ends meet.
Greece Debt: sustainable vs unsustainable
In a report the European Commission said on Monday that Greece will have a primary surplus in the budget of 3.7 percent of gross domestic product next year, exceeding the target of 3.5 percent.
The optimistic EU forecast remains fierce opposition to the International Monetary Fund. The Fund insists is that Greece debt is unsustainable and believes that Athens will be able to maintain a primary surplus of 1.5% in the years after 2018.
“The higher the surplus and the longer it is kept the less is the need for any further debt relief to Greece.”
The Commission forecast said that the Greek debt would fall to 177.2 percent of GDP this year from 179.7 percent in 2016 and then decline again to 170.6 percent in 2018.
The IMF insists that the debt is unsustainably high and that Greece must get debt relief.
Germany and several other euro zone countries say that, if Greece does all the agreed reforms, then debt relief will not be necessary.
Among others, the Commission forecasts:
- Greek investment would triple to 12 percent of GDP this year and rise further to 14.2 percent of GDP next year
- Economy growth 2.7 percent in 2017 and 3.1 percent in 2018 after years of recession.
- Greek unemployment would fall to 22 percent of the workforce this year from 23.4 percent last year and decline further to 20.3 percent in 2018.
Optimistic forecasts we saw also in several IMF projections of the past, when Greece signed the first and second bailout. By 2015, the IMF got sober, it admitted that its projections were wrong, it had used false multipliers and it did not take into consideration the human factor.
So, who should we trust?
Monday noon, I started a Poll on Twitter.
#IMF says: #Greece debt is unsustainable. #EU-lenders insists the opposite. Whose forecast do you trust?
— Keep Talking Greece (@keeptalkingGR) February 13, 2017
According to results in the first 45 minutes, the “EU” receives the least trust, while the “IMF” and “None” compete against each other.
For participation, please, Click the Link
“Sober” is good, false multipliers mean the IMF owes Greece a lot of money
of course, they owe money to Greeks.
Yes they do. Trouble is who is going to claim this money in the courts and the international fora? Alex and the Quislings? LoL!