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June Elections: “Secret” Rolling Polls Show Polarisation Between ND & SYRIZA

Four days before the crucial elections of June 17, 2012 and several so-called “secret” public opinion polls are being forwarded to media and websites. Whether they are real rolling polls conducted for the political parties, or fake in order to influence undecided voters, it is not clear, as two weeks before the elections the publishing of public opinion polls in banned.

This does not hinder Greek media to publish in one way or another some rates for the political parties accompanied with lots of comments and estimations.

Even public opinion polls before the ban, showed that the ballots results on June 17 would most probably end in a ‘derby’ between  conservative Nea Dimocratia and left-wing SYRIZA. “Researchers are unable to make secure estimations concerning the first party and as well as the difference between the first and the second party,” according to daily Ethnos.

“ND and SYRIZA are in especially positive course of coiling up their voters. and it is sure that the two parties will receive higher rates than at May 6 elections.

Pollsters estimate that the first party to emerge will get rates most probably exceeding 30%.

At the same time the parties that did not manage to enter the Parliament on May 6 will get even lower rates. While they all together got 18% in May, their rates fell below 10%.

Socialist PASOK and Communist KKE have recorded losses in public opinion polls, a fact that would end into strengthening ND and SYRIZA.”

 Over the weekend, some Greek media published rates for the political parties in the “voting intentions” of respondents however it is not clear whether they referred to the results of rolling polls.

In an extraordinary polarisation climate between Nea Dimocratia and SYRIZA, the difference between these two parties is aparently slightly over 2%.

In the general picture there is not big difference to the POPs published before the ban.

Voting Intention

ND 26%-29.5%

SYRIZA 23% – 26%

PASOK 9% – 12%

INDEPDENTENT GREEKS 6% – 7%

DEMOCRATIC LEFT 4% -5.5%

CHRYSI AVGI 4.5% – 6%

KKE 3% -4%.

It looks that both Chrysi Avgi and KKE slightly won form the incident where extreme-right MP Kasidiaris punched KKE MP Kanelli right on air, while a debate at ANT1 TV.

What are the motives of the Greek voters? The dilemma Euro or Drachma that has ‘deleted’ any other social problem from the parties’ debate agenda during the elections campaign? Or the daily to make ends meet, the struggle to get medicines or standing for hours in queues to fix an issue with the public sector or the state-run enterprises?

It is  true that the nightmare of Drachma that Nea Dimocratia put on the front line of its campaign scared to ‘death’ many middle-class Greeks especially in the areas outside the big cities.

On the other hand, SYRIZA’s aggresive attack against the Troika deal has been considered as a successful strategy by Greeks who have been directly harmed by the austerity and believe, they have nothing left to lose.

No party is expected to achieve the absolute majority, with the effect that a coalition government will be due in June 18.

Should no party achieve more than 30%, the leader of the first party that emerges from elections refrains from being Prime Minister in a coalition government.

Click here  for the official public opinion polls before June 1st 2012

PS A friend of mine spent 4.5 hours standing line at a DEH-office in Athens in order to fix an issue with the Greek Public Power Company. It was the second consequent day she spent at DEH, in fact standing outside, on the street in temperatures of 35 degrees C. Exactly like in …Africa 🙂

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3 comments

  1. So it looks like no one is going to get the 30% threshold-will this mean another election? There would be no prime minister?

    As far as coalitions are concerned, I understand that KKE has always stated they would rather be on the opposition, so I know that won’t happen. But what about the Democratic Left? I don’t know anything about them, except they are a splinter from SYRIZA-what is preventing them from working together?

    • keeptalkinggreece

      even with -30% there can be a …coalition gov.
      DemLeft has also ex PASOK ; what prevents them from working together? as one party? as gov?

  2. Believe me, opinion polls in Greece are carried out so amateurishly that any deviation from past voting patterns makes them invalid. I won’t bore you with the details, but they know as much about the next election result as the guy selling chestnuts on the street corner. Maybe less.