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Opinion polls: ND leads with 0.5%, “undecided” voters to determine the winner

In the first public opinion poll conducted after the debate between ex prime minister Alexis Tsipras and the leader of main opposition party conservative New Democracy Bangelis Meimarakis on Monday, Greece’s main opposition party leads wioth 0.5% towards SYRIZa.

Poll conducted by Metron Analysis for private TV Action24:

SYRIZA 27%

New Democracy 27.5%

Golden Dawn 6.5%

PASOK-Democratic Left 6.5%

To Potami 5%

KKE 5%

Polular Unity 3.55

Centrists’ Union 2.5%

Independent Greeks 2%

Undecided 7%

The poll was conducted between September 15th and 16th, while part of it was conducted after the debate on Monday.

Most suitable Prime Minister is considered Tsipras with 36%, while Meimarakis receives 34%.

New Democracy manages to gather together its (former) voters at 81%, while SYRIZa manages only 58%.

“Development and jobs creation” is the most important issue for 43% of the respondents, followed by “Stability” at 24%, “elimination of social inequalities” at 11%, “debt negotiations” at 7%, “European perspective and the euro” at 6%.

Meimarakis leads in respondents’ preference on “stability”, “growth and jobs creation”, “the European perspective and the euro,” while Tsipras leads in “elimination of social inequalities” and “debt negotiations.

Analysis

While I see no obvious explanation as to why Pasok-DemLeft suddenly landed at 6.5%, it will be certainly a surprise to see that the Centrists’ Union will not pass the 3% threshold and secure its entrance to the Parliament. Party chairman Leventis is considered as the outsider that will gather some conservative voters disappointed by ND.

But maybe CU’s potential voters were shocked to learn that Chairman Leventis has at least 6 members of his family – his wife incl- on the ballot papers and thus on electable positions.

As SYRIZA and ND to run neck and neck still four days before the elections, it seems that it will be the “undecided voters” who will decide which party will win the elections and get the bonus of 50 seats in the Parliament.

According to public opinion polls published over the weekend, the rate of “undecided voters” remains high, roughly between 7% and 10%.

A 4.9% of “undecided” reportedly belong to citizens who voted for SYRIZA in the January elections.

A 3.5% of SYRIZA voters in January tends to either abstain from going to the ballot boxes or cast a “white” or “invalid” vote.

Public opinion polls show that 14% of SYRIZA voters has not decided yet. IT sounds logical as left-wing voters are in dilemma after the break away of the Popular Unity.

The rates of SYRIZA in January elections were “borrowed” anyway as it had managed to attract disappointing voters of PASOK and New Democracy.

What I find interesting in my social environment is that people who did not vote for SYRIZA in January, now will cast their vote for the left-wing considering “Alexis Tsipras as the politician who will lead a movement of a center-left.”  These people consider themselves as “progressive Europeans” – whatever this means… maybe a kind of Social Democrats, who feel like orphans after PASOK established itself as the “personification of corruption and nepotism and cronyism in Greece.”

Another interesting thing is that also German progressive newspaper DIE ZEIT published an article fully adopting SYRIZA’s slogan” Give a second chance”.

ZEIT ONLINE (all)  ‏@zeitonline_all
Alexis Tsipras braucht eine zweite Chance: Nur der Syriza-Politiker kann die Korruption in Griechenland wirkl… http://bit.ly/1Y7Ay9Z

Translation: “Alexis Tsipras needs a second chance. Only the SYRIZA-politician can really combat the corruption.”

Due to a technical problem, one may cannot open DIE ZEIT link.

Syriza sources leak their own estimations to the media and they “see” the former government party as the winner of the election with 3.5% difference from ND and rates around 32-33 percent at least.

PS if ex PASOK voters and German newspapers see in Tsipras “a new social-democrat leader”, we can all put our bets on who will be the winner on Sunday.

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