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Greek June 17 Elections: Live Blogging from Athens -Exit Polls

Ballot boxes of the most crucial elections in Greece are most likely to end with a neck-to-neck rally for conservative and pro-bailout Nea Dimocratia and left-wing and anti-bailout SYRIZA. These are the estimations of the Greek media which apparently have had a look at the results of the exit polls.

Exit polls will be released at 7 p.m. Greek time, that is the moment the ballot boxes will close. That is in approximately 12 minutes.

EXIT POLLS – 17 JUNE 2012

1. NEA DIMOCRATIA: 27.5% – 30.5%
2. SYRIZA: 27% – 30%
3. PASOK: 10% -12%
4. INDEPENDENT GREEKS 6% – 7.5% 

5. CHRYSI AVGI  6% – 7%
6. DEMOCRATIC LEFT 5.5% -6.5%
7. KKE 5% -6%
No other party manages to pass the 3% threshold; most of them are below 2.5% 

ANALYSIS

In comparison to May 6 elections:

ND winds in percentage but does not manage to achieve absolute majority.

SYRIZA breaks its won historical record.

PASOK and INDEP GREEKS rates decreased

CHRYSI AVGI emerges to 5th party.

Historic low for KKE.

According to Greek media, the winner will be known at approximately 10 p.m.

07:44 pm

According to Skai TV, exit polls estimations of Public Issue showed SYRIZA heading… the news was posted at 07:11 pm

SYRIZA 31-25% ND 30-25% PASOK 15-11% INDEPGREEKS 9-6% DEMLEFT 9-6% CHRYSIAVGI 7-4% KKE 7-4% 
 

08:00 pm

Hoodies set Ballot Box on Fire

A group of 10-30 people wearing hoods, entered a voting centre in Exarchia district of Athens, caused damage and took hold of the ballot box. They poured gasoline and set it alight. They injured two policemen who were taken to hospital. They fled into unknown direction. (source: newsit, zougla & others)

Exarchia is a district in downtown Athens with many anarchists.

08:20 pm

6 May elections results to compare:

1.  NEA DIMOCRATIA  18.85% 108 seats
2. SYRIZA 16.78% 52 seats
3. PASOK 13.18% 41 seats
4. INDEP GREEKS 10.60% 33 seats
5. KKE 8.48% 26 seats
6. Chrysi Avgi 6.97% 21 seats
7. Democratic Left 6.11% 19 seats

08:23 pm

General Secretary of Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) Nikos Michaloliakos said his party is the “national opposition” adding that they “will continue to struggle inside and outside the Parliament  for the cancellation of the nation-killing  Memorandum of Understanding that concedes national sovereignty.”

Michaloliakos expressed his condolence to his political rivals and said “We will be fourth party.

Ten days ago Chrysi Avgi MP Ilias Kasidiaris shocked Greeks when he punched a female Communist Party MP. Apparently the punch-up did not shocked all Greeks but got GD new supporters.

The lack of state policies to the issue of illegal immigration, the crime increase, the anger about the MoU and the harsh austerity policies, the high unemployment rate (52.5% among the youth) have pushed many especially young people to the arms of the party that admires Hitler…

08:40 pm

100% EXIT POLLS ESTIMATIONS and SEATS DISTRIBUTION:

ND 29.3%  127 (incl 50-seats bonus)

SYRIZA 27.5%  72

PASOK 11.5% 32

 INDEPGREEKS 7% 21

CHRYSIAVGI 6.8% 19

 DEMLEFT 6.6% 16

 KKE 6% 13

 

 09:00 pm

OFFICIAL RESULTS: according to Greek Interior Ministry with 23.10% of the votes counted

  ND – SYRIZA – PASOK – INDEPGREEKS – CHRYSIAVGI – DEMLEFT – KKE

  30,87 %
  25,62 %
  13,18 %
  7,38 %
  6,87 %
  5,95 %
  4,38 %

ANALYSIS:

ND – PASOK could form together an absolute majority coalition government with 159 seats in a Parliament of 300.

That would be the absolute Greek paradox: after two elections rounds to have a coalition government composed by the same pro-bailout parties as  before the elections.

 09:16 pm

Next Question: What government?

PASOK official Anna Diamantopoulou said that PASOK would not join a coalition government without SYRIZA.

PASOK considers citizens have downvoted the party’s policies therefore it can not join a pure ND-PASOK government.

 09:23 pm

Official results by Interior Ministry/Singular Logic: 18% of the votes, based on 3,700 voting centres – Seven parties enter the parliament – No other party nears 3% threshold – Minor changes at the final results

1. NEA DIMOCRATIA: 29,53% 128 seats
2. SYRIZA: 27.12%  72 seats
3. PASOK: 12.25% 33 seats
4. INDEPENDENT GREEKS 7.56% 20 seats

5. CHRYSI AVGI  6.95% 18 seats
6. DEMOCRATIC LEFT 6.23% 17 seats

7. KKE 4.49% 12 seats

Difference between ND and SYRIZA 2.4%

ND Samaras wants to form a coalition government as soon as possible, even tomorrow (MEGA TV).

SYRIZA says “No” to a coalition with pro-bailout parties.

Granny at the ballot box

 09:56 pm

Government Scenarios:

ND lets know in a coalition government the PM will be the leader of the first party.

SYRIZA spokesman told Skai TV, if Samars fail to form a gov, SYRIZA will give back a gov mandate. 

Tsipras called Samaras and congratulated him on elections victory. Tsipras told Samaras the forming of a gov is urgent.

Venizelos (PASOK) stated a four party gov necessity. A “national co-responsibility government with ND-PASOK-SYRIZA-DEMLEFT.

Venizelos proposed that the President skips the usual procedure of giving the mandate to leader of first party, then to second and third. Papoulias should get together the party leaders tomorrow Monday and try to form a broader government. 

 10:20 pm

Nea Dimocratia leader and elections winner Antonis Samaras said at his victory  speech at Zappeion that “Greeks  have chosen their European path. “All who support it should join a government of national salvation”.  Samaras did not clearly speak of MoU renegotiation but hinted to some changes.

“We need to complement our commitments to EU with additional policies” he said.

Samaras seems to win with 29.53% however he failed to achieve absolute majority.

 10:20 pm

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told state broadcaster ARD, he “could think of changes in the MoU timetable”.

10:29 pm

SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras rejects coalition with ND “We will be present from the position of main opposition party.”

Tsipras: “Any government have to know that austerity measures cannot be implemented. People have rejected them twice.”

 10:39 pm

Elections results – with 55.51% of the vote counted:

ND 30.2% SYRIZA 26.3% PASOK 12.6% INDEPGREEKS 7.4% CHRYSIAVGI 6.9% DEMLEFT 6% KKE 4.4%

Eco-Greens,  Drasi/Dimiourgia Xana,  LAOS are at +/- 2% each.

 Tuesday, June 19, 2012: Unfortunately the server was down on Sunday evening and we were able to recover from the tech-shock this morning. Sorry for the incovenience. We keep blogging again, check out our Homepage for all the latest news.

 

 *** Apologies, sever was down for short time.

When server is down we alternatively we report via www.keeptalkinggreece.wordpress.com

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42 comments

  1. This was expected (at least, by me). The appalling thing is that if the Krauts had not stuck their oar in, threatening older Greeks with even worse shit than we have had, then probably there would be a clear Syriza government.

    If there is not, then there is also the possibility of no coalition government being formed. In that case, Greece is screwed, and possibly the whole eurozone too. Furthermore, it will show that interference with democracy is both destructive and illegal — something that apparently Germans, the cretin who is president of the Commission, and the self-serving banker from Luxembourg all need to learn.

    Let us hope that Greece is saved, rather than Europe destroyed.

  2. “The first party (ND or Syriza) will get around 130 seats, pollster Elias Nikolakopoulos says. Needs 20 more for a majority government.”
    ,
    — Athens News (@AthensNewsEU) June 17, 2012

    So let me get this right, if ND wins, they only need to form a coalition with PASOK and then the happy Greeks will get their severe austerity measures.

    Hahaha, I guess fearmongering works everytime. Goodbye Greece.

  3. Pollster Stratos Fanaras saying a part of voters-mainly younger people who came to vote in last 2hrs-refused to answer to exit polls
    — amalia negreponti (@aliama) June 17, 2012

    Two important data: 1.Youngsters vote last. 2.Youngsters vote for left
    — spyros gkelis (@northaura) June 17, 2012

  4. Welcome back… When this pans out like it’s projected now, we will end up with a ND/PASOK government?

  5. Sad, the racists still got so many votes

  6. Nikolokopoulos is an idiot. The vote is too close to call, especially as the shift in voter patterns is massive.

    Given that there are probably significantly different voter behaviours between ND and Syriza voters, then late voting might be expected to favour Syriza (younger people). Add to this the refusal of many to answer exit polls, then every single vote in Greece may have to be counted to get an accurate total.

  7. Thanks for the good work KTG.

    Can you put a side by side comparison of percentage between the two elections?

  8. keeptalkinggreece

    exit polls AND may results? i will

  9. Thanks much.

    PASOL’s share dipped a bit but not by much. This probably represented the traditional die-hard PASOK group.

    Others concentrate on the leaders, ND and SYRIZA, which makes sense.

    Overall the votes still show a deeply divided electoral.

  10. Update
    After watching the constituency results on tv, it is pretty clear that northern Greece — especially the areas with old people afraid of their own shadows — has voted predominantly ND. So, the overall figures that Greek tv showed initially were completely misleading and irrelevant (quelle surprise!)

    The likelihood then is a ND-Pasok coalition with one other party. In other words, we are back to exactly where we have been for the last two years. Pretty much like Egypt. Well worth the debate and effort, I don’t think. It is also a missed opportunity for Greece to play a leading role in helping to reform Europe. I suppose a gerontocratic corrupt polity is unlikely ever to do that.

  11. Well, if this poll stays, ND and PASOK will represent a majority.

    The Troika will like it.

  12. keeptalkinggreece

    and we will ask ourselves: why get again a ND-PASOK gov after 2 elections?

  13. Why? Because a large portion of voters are the clients of these parties. SYRIZA took PASOK’s clientèle, by promising them what Andreas Papandreou (the godfather of the rousfeti) did in the 80s. Now Venizelos is trying to get them back by saying he will not support a coalition with ND without SYRIZA included. Another Greek tragedy in the making!!!

  14. You are right. So used to do the italian
    communists when they were really a left party
    and not a team of renegades like they are now.
    I think Syriza has already won and Europe
    is Kaput.

  15. And the answer will be that there are two reasons: (1) demographic — Greece is full of useless old people, with few under 30; and (2) Germany (and others) illegally interfered with the democratic process to scare old people into voting for ND.

  16. “That would be the absolute Greek paradox: after two elections rounds to have a coalition government composed by the same pro-bailout parties as before the elections” Which was the plan all along. Meanwhile Greece is a lot poorer, and many more people are in serious financial and other trouble.
    I can see Greece going back to the ballot box before Xmas, and an awful lot of ugly, ugly violence in between.

    Fear is the biggest immobilizer know to man, and has been used to great effect. But at least, Samaras gets his wish, he can now put Prime Minister on his CV. That’s about all he’s interested in, as the people of Greece will find out in a very short while. It’s just so sad that the wellbeing of thousands of people is being sacrificed to satisfy the ego of a few has-beens. but there you go, first the Irish, now the Greeks. And Merkel gets her wish, nobody will try to stand up agaisnt her and her masters in a hurry again…

  17. ND 30,87 %
    SYRIZA 25,62 %
    Greece,,, good luck with your Euro.

  18. You just make things up as you go along, don’t you. There is no evidence to support your claims — that everyone who used to vote Pasok is now voting Syriza. Nor is there any evidence at all that clientelist motivations are relevant, when the country has been collapsing, people losing their jobs and homes, and massive cuts in pay and pensions.

    The clear evidence is that you are a right wing person who hates left parties, nothing else.

  19. keeptalkinggreece

    wonder where you get your info from…
    interior ministry officially: ND 29.53% SYRIZA 27.12%

  20. What % of vote counted?

  21. KTG – Great job with the site and liveblog. I’ve been tracking events from the U.S., and your site is the best I’ve found for foreign audiences.

    Do you think Pasok is really serious about not forming a coalition with ND unless Syriza joins? That would mean rejecting the bailout conditions, it seems. Am I missing something?

  22. keeptalkinggreece

    i give percentage

  23. Carlo may be looking at this site for vote counts:

    http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2012/06/elections2012b

    Is the Ministry data based on a projection? The site above has raw vote counts.

  24. keeptalkinggreece

    I understand the difficulty to understand: PASOK won with 44% the 2009 elections. Now down to 12%. The party admits its austerity-pro-bailout polices were disapproved by the people/also and mainly former voters. So it is not political correct to form a two party coalition with ND. i think lol

  25. votes “counted” so far, out of 100%

  26. Venizelos move is very strategic. Like I said he could be trying to woo back all of the old PASOK clientele, but he could also be putting the ball in SYRIZA’s court in these difficult times of tough decisions. Tsipras knows that there is no way he could keep his promises, but by being the leader of opposition he gets a free pass from this. If he was to be part of the coalition he would not have this luxury. So its a smart move by Venizelos. And (xenos) yes, the majority of voters for SYRIZA are from the base of PASOK that work in the public sector, and union bosses and members that have destroyed Greece.

  27. KTG, we are watching the live vote coming in from

    http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{“cls”:”main”,”params”:{}}

  28. PASOK’s base right now is pro-bailout. That’s why their numbers are so much lower now. If they suddenly turn anti-bailout they would be going against their voters wishes, Sounds familiar eh? Didn’t GAP do the same thing?

  29. I couldnt’ say better, only with more f*** words !

  30. Do you seriously believe Tsipras gives a dam about Greece? He has promised the world to gain the office of prime minister. Tin glitose o malakas pou exase!

  31. We are back to 2 months ago, with a pro austerity gvt, but that time with a strong nazi parti, that will make everything to be seen and heard !
    Add a -30% tourism income that year (my own numbers), and you can say that the next few months will be very… interesting !
    Explosion in 3 … 2… 1… month ?

    -fx

  32. If ND is able to form a government, it will be worse off for Greece.

    Because Germany knows then it can squeeze ND as ND is reluctant to do much that will cause Greece to leave the EU or Euro zone.

  33. “Tsipras told Samaras the forming of a gov is urgent”?

    Interesting. Does this mean SYRIZA is willing to form a coalition government with ND?

  34. “Samaras did not clearly speak of MoU renegotiation but hinted to some changes.”

    results not yet in and hes already going back on his word. but we kknew this would happen he is the kolotoumba king.

  35. keeptalkinggreece

    they don’t call him “Komaneci” for no reason lol

  36. I guess not.

  37. “Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, has telephoned Antonis Samaras, leader of New Democracy leader, to congratulate him on his victory. Unofficial and official polls suggest that New Democracy will take the lead, and Tsipras has conceded.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9336591/Greek-election-Live.html

    Oh well…I am happy that SYRIZA made this much impact. I wish them well in their role as opposition. Long live the struggle!

  38. So, PASOK says “NEIN” to a coaliton without SYRIZA. SYRIZA says no to a coalition with PASOK. SYRIZA says no to a coalition with ND. Samaras pronounces himself PM of the new government. Who with?
    Looks like you’ll be reporting on in/out Euro, yes/no Drachma, EU interference, bailouts, bust banks and all teh joys of our modern world for another month KTG, just to do this all over again…

  39. keeptalkinggreece

    me? I’m looking to beach vacation with sleeping bad and 4 food cans #austerity with or without #euro