Greece is one minute before 12. Midnight sharp we will not all turn into pumpkins but rather into default, should we believe local and foreign media. As the whole reporting about “Greece’s Doomsday” is strongly influenced by the pro or contra propaganda with regards to Referendum on upcoming Sunday, I stress right away that I am very cautious on what I hear from here and there, from left and right. Unless the information is confirmed by official government or EU or Eurozone or USA or Whoever else officials.
Today, Tuesday, 30. June 2015, the facts are:
1. Greece has to pay €1.6 billion to the IMF after it ‘bundled’ its June tranches. IMF’s deadline is …well there is some confusion about this due to time zones and other ‘mysterious’ things – probably like ‘working hours'(?)
According to Independent
For the purposes of clarity, the deadline is in fact 11pm BST – or 6pm in Washington, where the International Monetary Fund is based.
That is 1 am Wednesday, Greek time.
However, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told state broadcaster ERT Monday night that
“We will pay the IMF, if they [creditors] come with a new proposal.”
With hint to the fact that creditors have not given any bailout money to Greece since August 2014, Tsipras added
“The IMF want to be paid without paying.”
2. The Greek program expires also today at midnight. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that the the country’s creditors EU/ECB/IMF program for Greece expires at midnight.
3. Without creditors’ program the European Central Bank will most likely pull the plug of Emergency Liquidity Assistance causing Greek banks to collapse.
There have been a lot of rumors in the last 24 hours claiming that “the banks assets were just 2 billions” – although still last Friday the ECB was considering Greek banks as “solvent”, that is they had estimated some €100 billions in assets.
There was of course a bank and ATM run from Friday to Sunday – before the capital controls were imposed – but data of the last months have showed that Greeks can/do withdraw maximum one billion per 24 hours. Therefore the rumor can be just a malicious rumor to scaremonger and influence potential NO-voters to put pressure on the government to accept the creditors’ proposals. Or Not. I am not in position to verify the assets of Greek banks…
As I said at the beginning of the post: Lots of rumors, lots of “unnamed sources”, lots of leakages, lots of scenarios, lots of scaremongering…
Close to last minute solution?
Late last night leakages to the press by the government claimed that EC President Jean-Claude Juncker had made a new proposal to Greece. Juncker had allegedly proposed that Greece should:
1. accept creditors’ proposal
2. make one change
3. call an extraordinary Eurogroup
4. Vote YES to Referendum
The government had reportedly responded: “Next Sunday we vote NO.”
To make the long story short, it comes out that there was some telephone contact between Athens and Brussels Monday night, although not clear whether between Junkcer and Tsipras or between the “technical teams.”
Tuesday morning, the cables got fire and Greek media started to spread a new claim: that PM Alexis Tsipras was considering to
1. “bridge the differences between Greece and creditors”
2. “accept creditors’ proposal”
3. “make new proposal by Tuesday afternoon”
1. “some SYRIZA lawmakers put pressure on Tsipras to accept creditors’ proposal.”
2. “Cypriot President Anastasiadis has taken initiative between Athens and Berlin.”
3. “Germany and France take initiatives to solve Greek crisis.”
4. “the IMF will not be included in this new plan.”
5. “Brussels seeks for way to have IMF paid tonight.”
These claims gave wings to hope that there may be indeed a solution before the KA-BOOM.
UPDATE 02:00 pm
After “complete silence” from Brussels and the GR gov’t saying “last minute solution” struggle was “just a rumor”,
The European Commission confirmed that there was a phone conversation between Juncker and Tsipras Monday night targeting a “last minute solution”
La commission confirme que Tsipras et Juncker ont parlé hier soir d’un potentiel deal de dernière minute – Le Monde
From what Greek and international media report the negotiations have been indeed restarted and Pm Tsipras has also talked ot ECB’s Draghi and EP’s Schulz.
European Commission to Tsipras:
“The door is open”
According to GR media reports, there may be even a Eurogroup teleconference late at night.
An EU official told REUTERS that the Debt Relief issue can come up in October 2015
UPDATE 02:30 pm
According to some media:
PM Tsipras is due to fly to Brussels tonight and discuss a deal with EU officials.
So far, no confirmation by GR officials.
BREAKING: German Chancellor Merkel says the door stands open for talks with Greece but the programme ends at midnight.
UPDATE 4:40 pm
According to GR Prime Ministry office, Greece sent a proposal to creditors seeking
2-year agreement with European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to fully cover financial needs
parallel Debt Restructuring
According to MEGA TV, Greece agreed to accept some of the creditors’ demands but certainly “no pensions and wages cuts.”
“Greece will seek a viable solution within the euro area, until the end.”
“The message of NO next Sunday will be for a bad deal,” the PM’s office said, stressing that Sunday’s “Referendum does not mean the end but the continuation of the negotiations for a better deal for the Greek people.”
Before the negotiations collapse last Friday, the two sides had allegedly agreed on several points.
UPDATE 05:30 pm
An emergency Eurogroup meeting via teleconference will take place at 7 pm Brussels Time (8 pm BR Time)
Eurogroup Head Jeroen Dijsselbloem tweeted:
“Extraordinary Eurogroup teleconference tonight 19:00 Brussels time to discuss official request of Greek government received this afternoon.”
Will they say Yes or No?Much too many YESs and NOs in our lives recently.
Let’s see what will happen. Latest on Greece’s news on a separate post.
PS it is certainly a good sign if Anastasiadis is involved. He is experienced in negotiations although not very successfully so far….
Stay Tuned with KeepTalkingGreece 🙂