Seismologist and Research Director of the Athens Institute of Geodesy, Gerasimos Chouliaras, warned of a major earthquake in Turkey, just twelve hours before the powerful tremor stroke with 6.8R on Friday night.
Chouliaras had evaluated data according to the Varotsos method of earthquake prediction (VAN method) and estimated that earthquake potential in Turkey was particular high at 86.7% on Friday and a high magnitude.
He posted his estimations on his Facebook account.
“By the method of natural time ( Varotsos et al., 2006) I ran the current seismic hazard statistics which show high values of 86.7% for a larger earthquake in Turkey after the 5.6 Richter earthquake. There has been a seismic gap since 1970 that gave Richter 6.9 and needs attention,” Choularis wrote following the 5.3 R in Manisa, West Turkey, on Thursday evening.
“It is a big confirmation of the research we have been conducting in the last 30 years about the earthquake prediction,” Chouliaras told Star TV on Saturday. “It is important to be able to locate the area and estimate the magnitude,” added.
Chouliara’s prediction triggered a “war” among Greek seismologists who have been divided into two fronts: opponents and supporters.
Head of the Greek Earthquake Planning and Prevention, Efthymios Lekkas said that seismologists making predictions “are hurting themselves and all of us because earthquake forecasts cannot be made 1500 km away.”
Chouliaras’ colleague, seismologist Akis Tselentis came to his support saying that he was aware of his predictions as he had sent him the material ahead of the Friday earthquake. “I confirm the successful scientific estimation of my colleague,” Tselentis said.
Others refrained from taking position on the issue.
Speaking to media on Saturday evening, Tselentis said he would not like to comment further on the issue out of respect for the victims in Turkey.
The War drums silenced – for now.
The VAN method discovered by Greek physicist Panayiotis Varotsos and his group claim the ability to identify electromagnetic signals that are precursors to earthquakes. They suggest the precursors are generated by electricity from piezo-stimulated effects in rocks being stressed just prior to the earthquake rupture.
