Winds of up to 8 Beaufort return to the Aegean Sea, fire risk increases and temperatures of 39 degrees Celsius are expected as of Wednesday, July 15, meteorologists in Greece forecast.
The first “signs” of a heatwave start from the upcoming weekend.
At the same time, while the country escaped the heatwaves hitting the rest of Europe, based on available data, the month of August is forecast to be much hotter than July also in Greece.
August hotter than July
August is expected to be warmer than normal in South-East Europe (including Greece) according to the long-term forecasts issued in early July, the meteo service of the National Observatory of Athens reported on Monday..
As shown in the graph below (Figure 1), according to 93% of the available scenarios, the average temperature in August will be higher than the normal levels for the season (reference period: 1993-2016). Specifically, the probability of positive deviations between 0 and 1°C, between 1 and 2°C and above 2°C is 32%, 44% and 17% respectively. The probability of negative deviations between 0 and 1°C is 7%. The average value of the 400 scenarios is +1.24°C.
Overall for the European continent, the map in Figure 2 illustrates the deviation of the average temperature in August based on the average value of the available scenarios. As it turns out, positive deviations are expected across the continent, with values exceeding +2°C in most parts. The largest deviations are found in central and eastern Europe.
This forecast is based on a total of 400 possible scenarios from the following 8 forecast centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), NCEP (United States), DWD (Germany), CMCC (Italy), JMA (Japan) and BOM (Australia), as provided by the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. It is emphasized that long-term forecasts are characterized by high uncertainty and are intended to estimate the trend in the monthly and seasonal evolution of average weather conditions. In addition, temperature deviations on a daily and local basis due to the impact of any type of weather systems may differ significantly from the average deviation of a month in a wider area.
Figure 1. Probability distribution for the average temperature in August 2026 in SE Europe, according to the 400 long-term forecasts issued in early July. The average value of the available forecasts is shown in the upper left corner of the graph.
Weather forecast July 13-19, 2026
Stronger winds will be the main feature of the weather in Greece this week as well, with meteorologists warning of an increased risk of fire in the coming days. According to the meteorologists of state broadcaster ERT temperatures up to 37 degrees Celsius, but also winds that will blow at a maximum of 7 Beaufort, are expected today, Monday, July 13..
According to its weather forecast for ERTnews, from noon, limited showers are expected mainly towards the Peloponnese and Pindos Mountains, while winds will strengthen even further, reaching 7 Beaufort in the southeastern Aegean and Ionian Sea. At the same time, the local northern wind Vardaris is also expected to strengthen to up to 5 Beaufort, setting Thessaloniki on an “orange alert” for fires.
The temperature will reach a maximum of 37 degrees Celsius, mainly in Aitoloakarnania, western Greece.
In Attica, a small chance of showers is expected while the temperature will reach 35 degrees Celsius. The winds will reach up to 5 Beaufort.
On Tuesday, the main feature of the weather will be the strengthening of northerly winds in the southeastern Aegean (up to 8 Beaufort), while stormy conditions are expected in the southern part of Crete.
On Wednesday, showers are expected on the northern borders, strengthened northerly winds 7 Beaufort in the eastern Aegean, as well as an increase in temperature that will reach 38 degrees and 39 locally in Sterea, Thessaly and Macedonia.
On Thursday, instability is expected to increase, with showers and isolated storms occurring in the northern mountainous areas from noon.
The temperature will fluctuate at the same levels.
The instability will remain on Friday, while signs of a heat wave are expected over the weekend, which will however be confirmed in the coming days.
Indicative Maps
