The official date for the early parliamentary elections has not be set yet, however the scenarios about the day after start to make the rounds. The magazine The Economist forecastsa win for conservative Nea Dimokratia but not enough majority that would allow it to form one-party government. The Economist predicts that the next rulers of Greece will be a coalition between ND and socialist PASOK and ex-banker Papademos, now caretaker PM) as deputy PM. This scenario aims to calm Greece’s lenders.
The Economist:
Steady as she goes, surprisingly
Greece’s election may see more continuity than convulsion
A SHAKE-UP of Greece’s cosy two-party political system would hardly be a surprise, given the economic and social upheaval caused by the country’s worst recession in almost a century. Many voters are sick of the corruption and clientelism that has flourished under the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) and the conservative New Democracy party, which have alternated in power for 30-odd years. At Greece’s general election, likely to be held on May 6th, polls suggest that many voters will back small anti-reform parties led by veteran political hacks.
Scaremongers claim that three left-wing parties—unreconstructed communists (KKE), hardline radicals (Syriza) and spendthrift socialists (Democratic Left)—are fomenting social unrest that could undermine Greece’s new bail-out, worth up to €174 billion ($227 billion), and drive it out of the euro. Others worry about far-right parties like Golden Dawn, which for the first time is likely to beat the 3% threshold to enter parliament and Laos. Up to ten parties might win seats at the election.
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Recently the two big parties have successfully cohabited under Lucas Papademos.
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New Democracy is unlikely to win a majority.
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Some politicians from Europe’s creditor nations worry that elections will distract Greece from its tight reform timetable. Yet despite the rise of small parties, the outcome is unlikely to make a fundamental difference. Many observers believe that New Democracy, …. will form a new coalition with Pasok. Such a pairing would enjoy a strong majority. Several senior cabinet ministers may keep their jobs. Mr Papademos might even be persuaded to stay, perhaps as Mr Samaras’s deputy. That would reassure Europeans that Greece will keep plodding on. (Full article Economist)
OK, we got your point. If things are so clear, Greeks would not need to go to polls. They can stay home and save some million euros, i.e. the cost of elections 🙂
If the Greek want to try to sort their mess without the money backed by other Euro area taxpayers, I actually don’t think anyone opposes it much anymore.
Come again??? The guy was MP from 1977-1996. He was first Finance Minister and then Foreign Minister. Was then kicked out of ND and later reïnstated. He has been MEP and from 2007 MP for ND again. And in 2009 became Minister for Culture…
Why is he NOT tainted??? *sigh*
Antonis is right. Samaras’ resume shows he’s yet another politician of the old guard who drove Greek into this mess. And his political proposals (tax cuts???) don’t inspire much confidence that he’s got a realistic view of the severity of the situation or of the limited options he has for solving them. Not very surprisingly, other conservative Eurozone have shown strong scepticism about that guy, if not outright antipathy. That doesn’t make him a good choice for prime minister in these difficult times.