IMPORTANT NOTICE: The EXIT POLLS on this specific blogpost refer to May 6 2012 Elections. The Exit Polls for June 17 2012 elections will be realeased at 7 pm – Greek time- today, and will be posted on a new blogpost. Check directly KTG-Homepage at www.keeptalkinggreece.com.
Exit polls of May 6 2012 elections:
Greeks decided! To give a big slap in the face of the Greek political system. EXIT POLLS announced just a couple of minutes ago show historical low rates for Nea Dimocratia and PASOK, and high rates for left SYRIZA, right/nationalist INDEPENDENT GREEKS and extreme-right CHRYSI AVGI.
According to pollster Nikolakoulos (MEGA TV) seven parties enter the Greek parliament, while two more (LAOS, Eco-Greens) struggle to pass the 3% threshold.
The most crucial issues of these elections are 1) the percentage of the winner 2) the difference to the second party 3) whether the pro or contra loan agreement (Memorandum of Understanding) front will prevail.
Exit Polls only ‘describe’ the elections outcome. They are conducted with randomly asked voters after they have voted and exited the polling centres. First official results are expected after 09:00-09:30 pm.
EXIT POLLS (source: MEGAT TV)
Nea Dimocratia (Conservative/Samaras): 17-20 %
PASOK (Socialists/ Venizelos): 14-17 %
SYRIZA (Left-wing/Tsipras): 15.5-18.5 %
KKE (Communists/Papariga): 7.5-9.5 %
Democratic Left (left/Kouvelis): 4.5-6.5 %
Independent Greeks (right/Kammenos): 10-12 %
LAOS (right/Karatzaferis): struggling for 3%
Chrysi Avgi (extreme-right/Michaloliakos): 6-8%
Eco-Greens: struggling for 3%
Democratic Alliance (liberal/Bakoyanni) 2.5%
Other (Parties with less than 2%): %
Scenarios about the next Greek coalition government are running high – even though the political results (final rates and seats allocation are still due). what could be the next Greek government? A coalition of ND-PASOK- SYRIZA-INDEP GREEKS?
There can be only very wild guess about the seats distributions based on exit polls
ND Samaras dropped the idea of calling new elections – Once he is assigned tomorrow, he will start immediately exploratory talks to form a coalition government (Mega TV)
Read our article about the procedures and time schedule to form a government if no party wins absolute majority.
Venizelos (PASOK) banned party officials from mass media appearences until the first political results are released by the Interior Ministry.
4 October 2009 results: PASOK 43.92% – ND 33.48% – KKE 7.54% – LAOS 5.63% -SYRIZA 4.60%
based on exit polls, PASOK lost voters mainly to SYRIZA; ND and LAOS lost voters mainly to INDEP GREEKS & CHRYSI AVGI
ND and PASOK voters (of 2009) considered SYRIZA proposal for a coalition government of the Greek left as realistic (mega tv)
France exit polls show Hollande winner with 53% .
Almost 55% of the voters chose anti-memorandum (loan-agreement) parties, 36.4% chose pro memorandum (ALCO Exit Poll)
Parliament Seats (300) Distribution according to exit polls by PUBLIC ISSUE
ND 108-120 (incl 50 seats bonus)
INDEP GREEKS 20-28
Mega TV pollster confirmed ND first party at 90%, SYRIZA second, PASOK third….
ND may win one percent and get 18-21%.
currently 3 parties at 3% threshold (LAOS, ECO-Greens, DEMALL)
Samaras ND to propose a 20-points coalition government plan to …PASOK (Mega TV). Although it looks it will be 3rd party!
Many Greeks worry about extremist Chrysi Avgi entering the Palriament. Blame pro-memorandum PASOK/ND for failing to have addressed the illegal immigrants and crime issues.
Greek Interior Ministry started to post official results:
SYRIZA comes first in Athens A’ and B’ area, Nea Dimocratia in the country side.
Adjustment of Exit Polls with first real results (source: Mega TV):
ND 19-20.5% SYRIZA 15.5-17% PASOK 13-14%
INDEPGREEKS 10-11% KKE 8-9.5% DEMLEFT 5.5-6.5%
LAOS, ECO-GREENS, DEMALL at 3%
Alexis Tsipras SYRIZA reaction to elections results… Picture posted on his Facebook account: Banner “Left Government”
Results and seat distributions according to first counting results and exit polls (source: mega tv, 1st column) and Singular Logic/Interior Ministry/2nd column
ND 19.7%/108 seats 19.2%/108
SYRIZA 16.4%/47 seats 16.3%/50
PASOK 13.4%/ 38 seats 13.6%/42
INDEPGREEKS 10.5%/30 seats 10.5%/32
KKE 8.8%/25 seats 8.8.%/26
ChrysiAvgi 6.8%/19 seats 7%/22
DEMLEFT 6%/ 17 seats 6%/19
LAOS & Eco-Greens each 3.1% ; each 8 seats 2.86%/2.86% and 8/8
Should LAOS & Eco-Greens fail to enter the parliament ND will get 5 more seat, SYRIZA and PASOK 2 more each.
ND and PASOK get togeher 146 seats, making colaition gov with the participation of only these 2 parties impossible.
ND gets a 50-seat bonus, although it receives only 19.7 percent.
Singular Logic said there might be a +0.5% for all parties but much will depend on whether LAOS & Eco-Greens manage to enter the Parliament.
Venizelos PASOK first statement after voting and results: “a bipartisan goverment as before the elections [ND/PASOK] would not be legitimate on national level neither trustworthy on international level. Neither SYRIZA’s pproposal for a left government won the majority of the votes”
Venizelos offered an ecumenical government with all possible parties. [this smells to me like Italian governments in the 1990’s]
See our posts on Elections results in www.keeptalkinggreece.com HomePage