The win of left-wing SYRIZA seems to be a fact as it secures its lead towards Nea Dimokratia with more of 4% according to latest polls. But what percentage will SYRIZA need to form a majority government with 151 seats in a Parliament of 300 and avoid to have to form a coalition?
It all depends to the number of political parties that will pass the 3% threshold and the percentage of the votes going to the parties that will not manage to pass the threshold.
Taking into consideration the fact that 50 seats are being granted as bonus to the party that wins the majority of votes, the remaining 250 seats are being distributed according to a rather complicated system.
According to the elections law, the seats distribution occurs proportionally among all parties that manage to pass the electoral threshold of 3 percent.
In the very theoretic scenario, that is in case that all parties enter the Parliament, the winner has to have at least 40.4% of the votes in order a form a majority government.
Starting on this basis, for every percentage rate added to the parties left out of the Parliament, the majority government rate is decreased by 0.4%.
If 5% of the votes go to parties that do not pass the 3% threshold, the elections winner will need
38.5% of the votes to form a majority government
7% –> 38%
8.5%-9% –> 37%
Usually, the votes going to parties that do not manage the 3% threshold is 5%-6%, as previous elections have shown.
In June 2012 elections,
Nea Dimokratia received 29.66% of the votes and 129 seats (50-seat bonus incl) and 7 parties passed the 3% threshold. 13 parties remained outside and received together 5.96% of the votes.
Nea Dimokratia was far from forming majority government as it would need some 38.2%.
PS I know elections life is complicated…