President Tayyip Erdogan’s opponents face an uphill struggle to end his two-decade rule of Turkey in a runoff vote on May 28 after he performed better than predicted in a first round of voting on Sunday but fell short of an outright majority.
Turks woke on Monday to see support for Erdogan just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgement on his autocratic rule.
“The winner has undoubtedly been our country,” Erdogan said in a speech to his cheering supporters at the headquarters of his ruling AK Party in the capital Ankara overnight.
Going into the election, the opposition had sensed its best chance yet of unseating Erdogan, encouraged by polls showing him trailing his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But the results suggested Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party had been able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis, REUTERs noted.
Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results, calling on his supporters in the country of 84 million to be patient.
Turkey’s main share index tumbled 6.4% in pre-market trading, with the banking index down 9.5%.Turkey’s main share index tumbled 6.4% in pre-market trading, with the banking index down 9.5%.
The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara’s traditional alliance with the United States.
A third candidate, the nationalist Sinan Ogan took some 5.2% of the vote and analysts said he could play a “kingmaker” role in the runoff if he decides to endorse one of the two.
Ogan said on Monday that he will support Kilicdaroglu.
Lira sliding
Turkey’s main share index tumbled 6.4% in pre-market trading, with the banking index down 9.5%.Turkey’s main share index tumbled 6.4% in pre-market trading, with the banking index down 9.5%.
The political uncertainty was expected to weigh on financial markets in the next two weeks. Overnight the lira hit a new two-month low against the dollar, weakening to 19.70 before edging back to 19.645 by 0600 GMT.
#Turkey Lira on the way to 20 per Dollar following the presidential election as investors see an 80% chance that Erdogan will win the runoff, sending the country into a Balance of Payment crisis. pic.twitter.com/rezhkF8CHz
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) May 15, 2023
The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday’s levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
with Reurers and other media.
