Economic recovery is at sight, Greek Finance Minister Yiannis Stournaras told us last week. He said, he believed and hoped that things would get much better by end of 2014 and that unemployment would start decreasing later. In short, Stournaras told us to have faith, be patience and try to survive starvation for at least two more years. So far, the magic formula is “be patience, pay taxes and pray”.
Also the European Commission appears to share Stournaras’ confidence for the future. More or less. Or not… or half… or something…
In a report dated May 7th and released in Athens on Monday, EU Commission said that “Greece outperformed its 2012 fiscal goals,” predicting that the country will hit its fiscal targets also in 2013 and 2014.
And then? Oh, well… “Greece needs additional savings to meet its bailout requirements in 2015 and 2016,” the European Commission said.
“New savings to meet a more ambitious target for a primary budget surplus of 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and 4.5 percent in 2016.”
“Athens needs extra fiscal measures worth 1.8 percent of GDP in 2015 and 2.2 percent in 2016 to live up to these goals.”
In its EU Commission report story Reuters calculated that the savings estimates translate into 8 billion euros.
Eight billion euros? Where will this amount come from when our pockets are empty and Samaras’ coalition government keeps repeating that the society cannot tolerate more austerity cuts after three austerity programs?
“Athens and its lenders would make a new estimate on the size of the gap and discuss the measures needed to fill it in the autumn,” the EU Commission report said.
I see. We maybe have to hear a new revision of economic recovery predictions in autumn. The same procedure as usual…
Unemployment breaks one record after the other it currently stands at 27%. Average disposable income has dropped by a third. The middle classes lost big amounts of money in wages and pensions cuts and high taxes. The poor are to be taxed in this year.
Private households consider 2013 as the worst year since 2010, when the country sought the ‘rescue’ by International Monetary fund.
And there should be new measures in 2015 and 2016? But wait. That was agreed between Greece and its lenders when it was granted two years adjustment extension in 2012, right?
PS Sorry, I forgot our lenders predictions always refer to fiscal adjustments on the paper and not to real people.
