The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth projections for Greece in 2019. The IMF is more optimistic about the growth pace and estimates upwards to 2.4%, from 1.8% in its April projections. It keeps unchanged its estimation for 2018 at 2%.
This forecast is revised upwards by + 0.6%, as in April by 2018, the Fund estimated that this year’s growth would be 1.8%, according to the World Economic Outlook.
According to the report, Greece’s growth is estimated at 2% this year and 2.4% in 2019. In the medium term, the Fund estimated that GDP growth will be 1.2% compared to 1.9% estimated in its spring forecasts.
The IMF estimated that Greece’s current account deficit will grow to 0.8% of GDP this year, while for 2019 it sees an increase in the current account deficit, estimated at 0.4% of GDP.
It also estimated that the unemployment rate will fall by 1.6% to 19.9% this year from 21.5% in 2017, while it sees it will further fall to 18.1% in 2019.
Inflation is expected to be close to 0.7% in 2018, it said adding that in 2019 it will further increase to 1.2%.
Greece’s primary balance estimates for 2017 are based on preliminary excessive deficit procedure data on an accrual basis (ESA 2010) provided by the National Statistical Service as of April 23, 2018.
Historical data since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with the primary balance definition under the enhanced surveillance procedure for Greece.
A number of countries, including Greece, have suffered very large declines in GDP per capita in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the IMF said in its report.
PS What has happened and the IMF changed its projections into positive? I hope it’s not again due to the famous wrong multipliers….