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IMF on Greece: Weak recovery in 2021, unemployment 20%, primary surpluses from 2022

Greece will return to primary surpluses from 2022 after reporting higher primary deficits and public debts in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said its Fiscal Monitor report released on Wednesday.

The IMF based its 2020 forecasts on the belief that political interventions to manage the pandemic have led to a simultaneous drop in public revenue and a jump in public spending in the country.

More specifically, the IMF expects Greece’s primary deficit to reach 6.0 pct of GDP this year and the GDP to contract by 9.5 pct, pushing the Greek public debt to 205 pct of GDP in 2020.

The Fund expects the fiscal deficit to be balanced in 2021 and to begin presenting primary surpluses from 2022 (1.4 pct of GDP), rising to 1.9 pct in 2023, 1.7 pct in 2024 and 1.5 pct in 2025. The country’s public debt is projected to reach 205.2 pct of GDP this year, from 180.9 pct in 2019 and to ease to 200.5 pct in 2021 and 187.2 pct in 2022.

 

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