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Moody’s: Ukraine war to affect Greece growth rate, inflation, tourism

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will weigh on Greece’s growth rate, have a major impact on inflation, shrink disposable incomes and render the country’s 2022 tourism prospects less rosy, according to a new report by Moody’s Analytics.

Deputy Director Michael Grammatikopoulos notes that the military conflict has led Moody’s to a 0.8 percentage-point reduction of the growth projection to 4.5% for 2022, according to the baselines scenario, while inflation this year will come to a historic high of 7.7% before easing to 3% in 2023.

Notably, the adverse scenario provides for GDP growth of just 1.9% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.

The length and extent of the energy shocks are having a strong impact on prices across the economy, he adds, so combined with the rise in global rates of food commodities, the inflation rate will top 8% in the second and third quarter.

Moody’s projects that although Greek tourism exceeded expectations in 2021, it will run into major challenges this year due to global inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine. It said about a quarter of the GDP slowdown the war has led to is due to the absence of Russian tourists from Greece, translating into the loss of €400 million in revenues for the entire year. [kathimerini]

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4 comments

  1. It’s not particularly honest to blame the Russian invasion. In fact, it’s the sanctions imposed on Russia by US primarily is behind the negative consequences, as if they sanction the whole world for the Russian invasion. All that to be able to sell their expensive Liquified natural gas in place of the Russian gas.
    Ukrainian war, manufactured in USA and made in Russia.

    • Please, how stupid can you get??? If Russia had not invaded Ukraine there would not be any sanctions and thereby no costs for all of us!
      Put the blame where it should be!

      • I Believe you are correct to state that without the invasion there would be no sanctions. However there was an invasion justified or not.

        The sanctions as the previous commenter suggested, where miscalculated, emotional and seriously shot us in the Western world ‘in the foot’. Not to mention what they will do to the rest of world. This was on top of the serious supply chain disruptions and fiscal expansions due to covid that were already causing inflation.

        I think it’s stupid to call this a ‘Putin Price Hike’ like the US Government is suggesting. Our leaders have failed us by making decisions that didn’t stop the war as they said it would. Their decisions have accelerated the Inflation and will make it permanent ie buying expensive LNG gas rather than cheap pipeline gas.

        Let’s not forget the environmental impact that this will bring considering the new requirement for ships and the extra steps needed for transporting these commodities to us.

  2. In between the bankster’s darlings, the IMF and Moody’s, who gave rise to a populism that saw the rise of a twice impeached insurrectionist. I do not value or respect this financial cartel’s pessimistic views.

    The IMF alone saw 2.5 billion in pure profit from Greece’s banking crisis.

    They are as deceiving as Putin’s who lied of no invasion -to piece keeping -to war crimes for self interest…

    All this does is reflect how criminals are stupid, whether while collar criminals or war criminals, their deception for self interests is evident. From gloom and doom forecasts to protection from Nazis- they lie, they are neither brilliant nor savvy.