Monday , July 24 2017
Home / News / Economy / IMF review admits: Greeks, we screwed you with wrong program & false multipliers

IMF review admits: Greeks, we screwed you with wrong program & false multipliers

The IMF’s review on its Greek program was released late last night. The 51-pages document on Greece’s fiscal adjustment program 2010-2013 is more than clear: The IMF screwed Greeks for three consecutive years. The IMF failed to realize the damage  austerity would do. The IMF failed to predict the real recession. The IMF applied wrong multipliers. The list in which the IMF officially admits its mistakes and failures in the case of Greece is long and despicable, if one takes into consideration the thousands of impoverished Greeks, the 1.3 million unemployed, the crash of the health care and the social welfare, the practical collapse of the public administration and inhuman austerity measures like taxing the verified poor.

Excerpts from IMF review:

There were notable successes during the SBA-supported program (May 2010–March 2012).
However, there were also notable failures.
Confidence was also badly affected by domestic social and political turmoil and talk of a Greek exit from the euro by European policy-makers.

A quick recovery in growth appeared optimistic. …Nonetheless, the program assumed a V-shaped recovery from 2012.

The program avoided a disorderly default and limited euro-wide contagion. But recession was deeper with exceptionally high unemployment.

Market confidence was not restored, the banking system lost 30 percent of its deposits, and the economy encountered a much-deeper-than-expected recession with exceptionally high unemployment. Public debt remained too high and eventually had to be restructured, with collateral damage for bank balance sheets that were also weakened by the recession. C

The IMF report is long and on PDF which makes it kind of difficult to copy paste some sections.

Are you nuts? “Views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Executive Board of the IMF.”

 If your interested in the whole report, click here, or read some excerpts as posted on international media:

The Guardian: IMF admits: we failed to realize the damage austerity would do to Greece

 Athens officials react to report with glee, saying it confirms that the price extracted for country’s bailout package was too high

In an assessment of the rescue conducted jointly with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European commission, the IMF said it had been forced to override its normal rules for providing financial assistance in order to put money into Greece.

Fund officials had severe doubts about whether Greece’s debt would be sustainable even after the first bailout was provided in May 2010 and only agreed to the plan because of fears of global contagion.

While it succeeded in keeping Greece in the eurozone, the report admitted the bailout included notable failures.

“Market confidence was not restored, the banking system lost 30% of its deposits and the economy encountered a much deeper than expected recession with exceptionally high unemployment.”

In Athens, officials reacted with barely disguised glee to the report, saying it confirmed that the price exacted for the €110bn (£93bn) emergency package was too high for a country beset by massive debts, tax evasion and a large black economy.”

 Forbes : IMF on Greece: We Screwed Up But It’s Really the Eurozone’s Fault

For Euro crisis enthusiasts, today’s IMF review of its Greek program is a real treat. By official standards, the document is thoroughly honest and clear. The report contains two clear messages. Message One: We screwed up. (This is widely accepted outside the IMF but the admission is refreshing all the same.) Message Two: Dealing with the Eurozone countries was impossible and it’s really they’re fault.

I’m just surprised that the IMF does not admit it had no previous experience with single-currency member states and that internal devaluation could not work.

Poul Thomsen announces additional lowering of wages

Interesting enough on the same day the report was released, the IMF website uploaded an interview with the chief of Greek program Poul Thomsen – the ‘interview’ was conducted by IMF staff ! No a single word is spoken about the IMF failures.

Greece has made substantial progress in strengthening its fiscal position and increasing its competitiveness, but it still needs to plough on with structural reforms to boost growth and generate jobs.

In this upside down IMF technocrats world, where the plight of one looks like success for the other,  Thomsen considers as success the reduction of imports – without making a link to real world deflation and consumers’ behavior. And he also signals further cuts in wages.

Thomsen: imports have been dramatically reduced, bringing over 10 percentage points of GDP improvement in the external current account position. Competitiveness has also improved. There is still a competitiveness gap, but it’s been substantially reduced.

Thomsen:  The big question is indeed, where growth will come from. This will require flexibility in the economy to be able to reallocate resources from low-productivity to high-productivity activities, to be able to hire workers into higher-productivity jobs. Key to achieving this is structural reforms to enhance productivity as well as reforms to tax and public administration.

Poul Thomsen seems to identify the main problem of growth. “There are [closed professions] restrictions, for example, to become a tourist guide.”

IMF: wrong multipliers

But to be fair, Poul Thomsen openly and officially admitted on Wednesday evening during a press conference that the IMF applied wrong multipliers on the Greek Program:

Thomsen:  There are certainly things we could have done differently. We already had that debate six months ago on these multipliers and that if we should do it again, we would not use the same multipliers. We use estimated multipliers. (full transcript of Poul Thomsen’s press conference here)

Despite all these admissions of wrong policies, no revision of the austerity program is foreseen, no return of the money of those who were deprived of their last cent .

Does admitting these problems help Greeks? Is a simple “Sorry” enough? No, it’s not. But so far there is no rumor around the Greek government would pose any compensation demands in the name of the Greek citizens.

IMF’s 2D vs 3D real world

Somewhere in this influx of papers, reports, reviews and interviews, I read:

“IMF: the common view was that no-one could have predicted the depth and length of the recession.”

I truly believe that exactly here is the root of the main problem of IMF: its staff  sees only in two dimensions (depth and length), where the real world one more dimension: the width.

We screwed you only THAT much…

… not THAT much!

 

 

Check Also

S&P Raises Outlook On Greece Ahead Of Bond Sale, Keeps B- Rating

Consider it a kiss to the bond investors who are expected to oversubscribe the upcoming …

8 comments

  1. “emergency package was too high for a country beset by massive debts, tax evasion and a large black economy”

    This is what Greece was, is and always be. Let´s see how long the other european countries wil support (=throw away money) the home of demecracy.

    lol

  2. Fist of all, it’s Democracy you retard not demecracy. Second of all, Greece is the birthplace of Democracy not the home of demecracy. Stay in school, idiots like you are running the IMF and causing these errors.

  3. keeptalkinggreece

    LOL see? it was a language error after all

  4. who cares how democracy is spelt, the real issue here is that Greece was used as a scapegoat…they wanted to experiment on us to see what happens when you push a nation too far and totally destroy it..well I’ve got news for all of those arrogant ….. We are Greeks and Greeks have always risen again, and my question is, shouldn’t we be compensated for all of the damage caused?

  5. IMF new tactics: It is better to appear unreliable than to let people understand that you serve specific interests

    http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2013/02/imf-new-tactics-it-is-better-to-appear.html

  6. and my question is, shouldn’t we be compensated for all of the damage caused?

    The simple answer is yes, but don’t hold your breath. The real question however is Why does the Greek, Spanish, Irish, etc. government keep playing their game and remain instrumental in destroying the countries they are supposed to be leading?
    The assistance given by the so called soverign governments is not only vital, it is essential for this wanten destruction to happen. If our respective governments would have the balls to stand up and say “Nein”, none of this would be happening. So, what’s in it for them? We know what’s in it for us, we are finding out the hard way every day. But what is in it for those so called leaders happily contributing to the total destruction of their countries? Follow the money….

  7. “emergency package was too high for a country beset by massive debts, tax evasion and a large black economy” = any answer/reply on this fact?

    Retard? Idiots? Come on, you can do better. Make my day.

  8. You just did make my day! If you are going to quote, then please have at least the decency and courtesy to other people’s intelligence to quote correctly, and not leave out the most important bit.

    the price exacted for the €110bn (£93bn) emergency package was too high for a country beset by massive debts, tax evasion and a large black economy.

    Which is nothing but a very clear admission that the hardship, poverty and suffering imposed on the Greek people as a result of this package (the price exacted)was and is is totally disproportianate to what this package was supposed to deliver. It is not the package that was too high, it was, and is the price paid by Greece that is too high. You really want to start reading things as they are rather than represent them as your wishful thinking and twist the quotes to suit your obvious need to gloat at other people’s misfortune.