A group of IMF technocrats sits down and writes the World Economic Outlook & Fiscal Monitor with the gloomier colours. Global economy looks bad and the IMF forecasts for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013. The IMF revised downward many of its projections when compared to those of last July partly because of greater uncertainty.
Especially concerning Greece the outlooks are grim, despite the fact that the IMF together with the other two Troika partners the EU and ECB had tailored an austerity costume based on wrong data. Or better say, a costume that does not fit to any economic due to its destructive features.
Unemployment forecast: 23.3% for 2012 and 25.4% for 2013
Recession forecast: 6% for 2012 and 4% for 2013
In September 2011 the IMF forecast report for Greece was :
recession 5% for 2011 and 2.2% for 2012. Unemployment 18.5% for 2012.
In real life recession closed at -7% in 2011 and over 20% unemployment.
Real life in 2012 shows unemployment at 23.6% for the second quarter/2012 and recession at -7%.
“Greece will miss the five-year debt reduction target that underpins the country΄s 130 billion euro bailout, according to forecasts released by one of its main lenders on Tuesday.
According to Reuters, the International Monetary Fund in its fiscal monitor report said the debt would fall to 152.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2017, compared with a target of 137.3 percent.
The target was agreed with the IMF and European Union under a debt sustainability scenario that forms the basis for the country΄s 130 billion euro ($168.60 billion) bailout package.
Under the bailout plan, Greece is due to start generating primary fiscal surpluses of about 4.5 percent of GDP from 2014 onwards to reduce its debt to about 120 percent of GDP in 2020.
The IMF report, however, shows primary surpluses of that scale only two years later, in 2016.
“In Greece, a deeper-than-expected recession and slippages in the implementation of fiscal measures will once again complicate attainment of the ambitious deficit reduction targets,” the IMF said.” (Reuters via Capital.gr / Full IMF Report Here)
Not a blush, not a sign of regret, not an apology … And they want more austerity of 13 billion euro. Based on false assumptions, forecasts and calculations.
And the joke of the day? Christine Lagarde said “it’s to early to say the Greek program has failed” – Too early, not before the Troika report!
PS I assume, equally wrong are the forecasts for Portugal and Ireland…