With this – Refugee Crisis – and that – borders closure, EU’s inability to solve the issue -, we, the Greeks, forgot the economic crisis, and the lenders. Forgot? Not exactly. We just focused on another, equally important tissue that makes the economic dead-end even worse. But here comes the International Monetary Fund to remind us how fragile the situation still is.
According to an article of German DER SPIEGEL, the IMF warns that Greece will have difficulty to debt service in March.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that Greece will have difficulty to serve its debt already in late March. The IMF is particularly concerned about the willingness of many EU countries to make more austerity-concessions regarding the third Greek bail-out program in view of the burden of the current refugee crisis.
“The IMF insists on the promises of the Greeks regarding the reforms and puts obstacles on the pending program review, which would give the green light to the participation of the Fund in the third bailout program” the article says.
According to Spiegel, the IMF says (it should be “claims”) that:
“the Greeks have promised permanent surpluses of 3.5% of GDP each year and since the government has failed to tax rich people, it must cut the pensions.” (German short version, SPIEGEL long version)
“Permanent primary Surpluses of 3.5% per year?” Where does this stand?
II Memorandum of Understanding with the Troika (IMF, ECB, EU) of 2012
2014 1.5% of GDP = € 4 billion
2015 3% of GDP – €5.648 billion
2016 4.5% of GDP = € 8.882 billion (source)
Everybody, including the IMF admitted at the end that these “Primary Surplus Projections” were impossible to be reached.
III Bailout Program summer 2015
So where is the : 3.5% per year? Oh it is in the Wish List of the IMF that is still considering whether to join the 3. bailout or not.
Greeks could remind the IMF and the Spiegel that negotiations between the Troika and the Samaras government were deadlocked and abandoned in Novemmber 2014 as both sides were not able to agree on the Primary Surplus, among others.
PS I had a Table of Primary Surplus agreed on 3. Bailout and the previous IMF projections but cannot find it right now.