Greece is heading rather towards fresh elections than a coalition government. Taking into consideration statements made by socialist PASOK and conservative Nea Dimokratia, it looks as if there is hardly common ground for a coalition under left-wing SYRIZA. Venizelos already signaled that he would skip the mandate and ask the president to call on political leaders council. Venizelos wants a four-party coalition, but the gap between SYRIZA and ND seems difficult to close.
This morning leader of ND, Antonis Samaras, called leaders of right parties that did not manage to pass the 3% threshold to form a centre-right pro-Europe front. Democratic Alliance, LAOS and Drasi have together more than 6%. Samaras’ invitation shows that he is unwilling to join or support a SYRIZA government and is preparing for the fresh elections.
A coalition consisting of SYRIZA(52 seats) and DEMOCRATIC LEFT (19 seats) without the support of PASOK (41 seats) and/or NEA DIMOCRATIA (108) would have absolutely no chances.
Even a SYRIZA-DEMLEFT-PASOK-INDEP.GREEKS coalition with a total of 112 seats would have no chances in a parliament of 300. Any Greek government needs the absolute majority of 151 seats in order to legislate.
PASOK has already rejected the idea of forming a ND/PASOK coalition, not only because such a government would not have the absolute majority in a parliament of 300 seats, although they could be theoretically supported by DEMLEFT. Practically DEMLEFT has rejected such a scenario.
PASOK apparently understood the message of its former voters message very well. Greek socialists saw their rates suffering a sharp decline of -30% when compared to elections 2009.
Communist KKE(26 seats) rejects any coalition options and governance proposals, even such as SYRIZA’s proposal for auditing committee of the Greek debt.
Current holder of the mandate to form a government, Alexis Tsipras (SYRIZA) met representatives from several social bodies and trade union this morning, while private sector union GSEE and teachers’ unions rejected his invitation.
Tsipras is scheduled to meet today Panos Kammenos (INDEPENTENT GREEKS/33 seats) at 5 pm, Evangelos Venizelos(PASOK) at 6 pm and Antonis Samaras (ND) at 7 pm.
Tsipras is preparing to send letters to Barroso (EU Commission) Van Rompuy (EU Council) and Draghi (ECB) saying that the “bailout programme commitments by Samaras and Venizelos are not legitimate anymore, as they hold only 32% of the public vote.”
Yesterday, Tsipras called the leaders of PASOK and ND to send letters Greece’s international lenders and annul their commitments. Neither Venizelos nor Samaras showed any sign of readiness to do so, as expected.
Needless to stress that the political uncertainty, the possible deadlock in coalition talks, the perspective of fresh elections, the prolonged political vacuum and even Tsipras’ intention to renegotiate the bailout package agreement are causing the markets to fall.
According to Greek Constitution fresh (repeat) elections date could be June 10th or 17th 2012, depending on when exploratory talks conclude and political leaders council under the president takes place.
UPDATE: Tsipras’s appointment with the President is set for 1 pm on Thrusday, one day earlier than the 3-day period. Governement or Failure? We will know more today in the afternoon afte rhis meetings with Samaras and Venizelos.
See also our other articles on Greek elections 2012 and scenarios here
