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Greek elections: Latest polls and estimated seats distributions

Left-wing SYRIZA increases its rates towards conservative Nea Dimokratia in the several polls published five days before the elections on Sunday. The growing rate difference 4%-6.5% is been justified with the rate of former ND-voters (elections 2012) who tend to cast a vote for SYRIZA.

Pollsters estimate that 3% of the voters who were “traditional conservative” will vote for the left-wing in order to punish the outgoing government and especially Nea Dimokratia for the “over taxation, the padlocks in businesses, the recession and the unemployment.”

This rate is approximately 11%. A 2% of former SYRIZA voters say that they will vote for ND.

Many still remain “undecided”, while a 10% says that they will decide in front of the ballot box.

Poll conducted by ALCO for Proto Thema

SYRIZA 31.7%

Nea Dimokratia 27.3%

To Potami 5.1%

Golden Dawn 4.8%

PASOK 4.1%

KKE 4.1%

Independent Greeks 3.2%

Poll conducted by Macedonia University

SYRIZA 33.5%

Nea Dimokratia 27%

To Potami 7.5%

Golden Dawn 5.5.%

KKE 5.5%

PASOK 4.5%

Independent Greeks 3%

Poll conducted by GPO for Mega TV

SYRIZA 30.4%

Nea Dimokratia 26.4%

To Potami 5.2%

Golden Dawn 5.2%

PASOK 5.1%

KKE 4.8%

Independent Greeks 3%

To Kinima 2.5%

What is interesting is that the average difference rate of SYRIZA and Nea Dimokratia to the third party is more than 20% to ND and more than 25% to SYRIZA.

To Potami and Golden Dawn seem to struggle for the third position. The third party is expected to play a crucial role for the formation of a coalition government should SYRIZA fail to reach a majority government. However SYRIZA has rejected option of forming a coalition with To Potami and PASOK and, of course,  there is absolute no way it could ally with Golden Dawn.

However, it is not so much the third party that will play a crucial role but the Independent Greeks

A coalition SYRIZA-IndepGreeks seems most possible, provided that IndepGreeks manage to pass the 3% threshold. IndepGreeks have increased their rates recently.

In several polls, the distribution of  Parliament seats is 145-147. For the absolute majority 151 seats are need. however this is a very thin majority.

ALCO POLL estimated seats distribution

SYRIZA 147 (incl 50 seats bonus), Nea Dimokratia 86 To Potami 16,  Golden Dawn 15,  PASOK 13, ΚΚΕ 13, Independent Greeks 10.και ΑΝ.ΕΛ. 10.

However much depends on how many parties will enter the Parliament. Should IndepGreeks fail to enter the Parliament, SYRIZA gets automatically the thin majority of 151 seats.

To Kinima, the party of ex PM Papandreou, seem unable to enter the Parliament, its rates are 2%-2.7%.

LAOS, Democratic Left and ANTARSYA rates are around 1.5%.

 

 

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6 comments

  1. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/19/us-greece-election-papandreou-idUSKBN0KS20Q20150119
    Mr. Papandreou fights for the threshold. Elections will be interesting.

  2. Of course there is also the nightmare scenario that ANEL gets less than 3%, SYRIZA fails to make a coalition and ND+PASOK+Potami “rule”. Omigod…!

  3. comment submitted by “Gotterdammerung”

    Name: Gotterdammerung

    Email: Sent from…

    >>>

    This applies to the Troika:

    “John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton (5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946) was a British economist whose ideas, known as Keynesian economics, had a major impact on modern economic and political theory and on many governments’ fiscal policies.

    (…)

    Sourced

    The old saying holds. Owe your banker £1000 and you are at his mercy; owe him £1 million and the position is reversed.

    . “Overseas Financial Policy in Stage III” (1945), Collect Writings 24:258”

    I hope that Syriza finally uses their advantage – while the former Greek Governments engaged in programs and lending that were unsustainable, the rest of the EU leadership sat back quietly as long as everyone was making money. Now that the party is over it is not fair to hang all of the responsibility on the Greeks.

    It is not like Germany has not had substantial debt forgiveness in the past themselves. They should remember how this helped them to regain their footing and become what they are today.

    >>>