Left-wing SYRIZA increases its rates towards conservative Nea Dimokratia in the several polls published five days before the elections on Sunday. The growing rate difference 4%-6.5% is been justified with the rate of former ND-voters (elections 2012) who tend to cast a vote for SYRIZA.
Pollsters estimate that 3% of the voters who were “traditional conservative” will vote for the left-wing in order to punish the outgoing government and especially Nea Dimokratia for the “over taxation, the padlocks in businesses, the recession and the unemployment.”
This rate is approximately 11%. A 2% of former SYRIZA voters say that they will vote for ND.
Many still remain “undecided”, while a 10% says that they will decide in front of the ballot box.
Poll conducted by ALCO for Proto Thema
Nea Dimokratia 27.3%
To Potami 5.1%
Golden Dawn 4.8%
Independent Greeks 3.2%
Poll conducted by Macedonia University
Nea Dimokratia 27%
To Potami 7.5%
Golden Dawn 5.5.%
Independent Greeks 3%
Poll conducted by GPO for Mega TV
Nea Dimokratia 26.4%
To Potami 5.2%
Golden Dawn 5.2%
Independent Greeks 3%
To Kinima 2.5%
What is interesting is that the average difference rate of SYRIZA and Nea Dimokratia to the third party is more than 20% to ND and more than 25% to SYRIZA.
To Potami and Golden Dawn seem to struggle for the third position. The third party is expected to play a crucial role for the formation of a coalition government should SYRIZA fail to reach a majority government. However SYRIZA has rejected option of forming a coalition with To Potami and PASOK and, of course, there is absolute no way it could ally with Golden Dawn.
However, it is not so much the third party that will play a crucial role but the Independent Greeks
A coalition SYRIZA-IndepGreeks seems most possible, provided that IndepGreeks manage to pass the 3% threshold. IndepGreeks have increased their rates recently.
In several polls, the distribution of Parliament seats is 145-147. For the absolute majority 151 seats are need. however this is a very thin majority.
ALCO POLL estimated seats distribution
SYRIZA 147 (incl 50 seats bonus), Nea Dimokratia 86 To Potami 16, Golden Dawn 15, PASOK 13, ΚΚΕ 13, Independent Greeks 10.και ΑΝ.ΕΛ. 10.
However much depends on how many parties will enter the Parliament. Should IndepGreeks fail to enter the Parliament, SYRIZA gets automatically the thin majority of 151 seats.
To Kinima, the party of ex PM Papandreou, seem unable to enter the Parliament, its rates are 2%-2.7%.
LAOS, Democratic Left and ANTARSYA rates are around 1.5%.