An academic study warns of the danger of a new pandemic wave in Greece, even in August, should the lockdown measures be lifted early and without the necessary precautions of safety distances, gradual increase of the contacts among the citizens and the epidemiological surveillance of the population. The study by the Aristotle University in Thessaloniki (AUTh) based on mathematical calculation models suggests that the gradual lifting of lockdown should take place rather on May 11 and not on May 4 as the government plans. The conclusion of the lockdown lifting should conclude in after July 11 and not by end of June as this would increase the risk of a new outbreak wave in August.
Had Greece impose restrictive measures five days earlier, the number of deaths would be 70% less, the report notes.
“Surgical measures” should be taken to remove the restrictive measures as there is a risk of a second epidemic even in the summer. Just a week earlier in lifting the lockdown could lead to the need to extend the restrictive measures for three weeks and increase the risk of an outbreak in August.
This conclusion emerged from the computational model for the course of measures for corona developed by the Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Innovation and the Environmental Engineering Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in collaboration with three Italian universities.
Chief professor of Chemical Engineering of AUTh, Demosthenes Sarigiannis, said that according to the mathematical model, the safe date to start the gradual lifting of measures is May 11 and the final exit from the lockdown could be set from July 11 onward.
From this date onwards, a gradual easing of the lockdown measures in combination with monitoring the epidemiological situation of the population with tests that should be done at regular intervals as well as the implementation of social distance measures and protection and personal hygiene measures in accordance with the instructions of EODY.
If the measures are lifted on May 4, restrictions should remain in place for the next three months to avoid the risk of an outbreak in early to mid-August.
Sarigiannis points out that “a A week’s delay in lifting the measures will help us to finally exit the lockdown two to three weeks earlier, that is, around mid-July, a significant time for the tourist season.”
“During the first phase of lifting the measures, our contacts should not increase by more than 15-25%,” the report underlines.
The phases of lifting the proposed restrictions are as follows:
1) On May 11, small shops can be opened by observing protective measures, safety distances and avoiding congestion.
2) Opening schools would lead to an increase in contagion, as children become cohesive, do not easily follow hygiene rules, and are silent carriers who often come into contact with vulnerable groups (eg the elderly).
With restrictions only, the opening of the last class of high school after May 11 is proposed.
It is recommended to develop the classrooms in larger spaces than usual in order to maintain social distances during the lessons.
3) It would be a good idea not to open the Universities if they are offering distance learning courses, with the possible exception of performing laboratory exercises and clinics after mid-June.
4) After a period of 2 weeks from the previous phase, restrictive measures could be lifted on companies that can operate as financial multipliers with a strong impact on GDP.
5) The lifting of restrictive measures on catering and leisure businesses may follow the second half of June, depending on the actual development of the epidemic.
According to the mathematical model of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, if the measures in our country had started five days earlier, the deaths would have been 70% less. If they had started a week later, we could have had twice as many deaths.
‘The crucial month for the course of the pandemic in Greece will be June,” Sarigiannis said. explains.
According to the mathematical model, in the event of a resurgence, this is expected to happen within the first week of June, so epidemiological surveillance should be particularly intensive during this period.
In addition, another scenario was studied, during which there is a slight relaxation of the restrictive measures on May 4, a second phase of second additional relaxation on May 11 and an additional relaxation on June 1.
In this case, keeping the confirmed cases in quarantine, it is expected that the contagion will be rekindled at the end of October and the beginning of November, which will require the re-implementation of restrictive measures.
The study has published by all Greek media, including ethnos.
